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| Registros recuperados: 50 | |
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| Pennings, Joost M.E.; Garcia, Philip; Irwin, Scott H.. |
| Heterogeneity, i.e., the notion that individuals respond differently to economic stimuli, can have profound consequences for the interpretation of behavior and the formulation of agricultural policy. This paper compares and evaluates three grouping techniques that can be used to account for heterogeneity in financial behavior. Two are well established: company-type grouping and cluster analysis. A third, the generalized mixture regression model, has recently been developed and is worth considering as market participants are grouped such that their response to the determinants of economic behavior is similar. We evaluate the grouping methods in a hedging framework by assessing their ability to reflect relationships consistent with theory. The empirical... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Economic behavior; Heterogeneity; Hedging; Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; A10; B40; C1; D0; G0; L2; Q13. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114787 |
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| Rivera Silva, Ana Laura. |
| El presente trabajo compara el costo total de una póliza de seguros para la caída de precios del maíz blanco de Sinaloa contra el costo de la cobertura simple ofrecida por ASERCA. El comportamiento sistemático de los precios fue modelado con un modelo autorregresivo, mientras que la parte aleatoria fue manejada por un ajuste de una distribución de Laplace a los residuales. Los resultados muestran que la prima del seguro por tonelada es al menos tan buena como la prima para ofrecida para la cobertura de ASERCA. El diferencial del costo y el hecho de que una póliza de seguro opera directamente en pesos; muestran que el seguro es una alternativa para la gestión de riesgos en los precios del maíz, con una menor carga a los contribuyentes. _______________... |
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Palavras-chave: ASERCA; Cobertura; Distribución Laplace; Maíz; Prima; Seguro; Hedging; Insurance; Laplace distribution; Premium; Maestría; Economía. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/196 |
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| Rivera Silva, Ana Laura. |
| El presente trabajo compara el costo total de una póliza de seguros para la caída de precios del maíz blanco de Sinaloa contra el costo de la cobertura simple ofrecida por ASERCA. El comportamiento sistemático de los precios fue modelado con un modelo autorregresivo, mientras que la parte aleatoria fue manejada por un ajuste de una distribución de Laplace a los residuales. Los resultados muestran que la prima del seguro por tonelada es al menos tan buena como la prima para ofrecida para la cobertura de ASERCA. El diferencial del costo y el hecho de que una póliza de seguro opera directamente en pesos; muestran que el seguro es una alternativa para la gestión de riesgos en los precios del maíz, con una menor carga a los contribuyentes. _______________... |
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Palavras-chave: ASERCA; Cobertura; Distribución Laplace; Maíz; Prima; Seguro; Hedging; Insurance; Laplace distribution; Premium; Maestría; Economía. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10521/196 |
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| Tonsor, Glynn T.; Khuyvetter, Kevin C.; Mintert, James R.. |
| The ability to accurately forecast basis is crucial to risk management strategies employed by many agribusiness firms. Previous research has examined how to effectively use basis forecasts and what factors affect basis, but literature focusing on forecasting basis is sparse. This research evaluates the impact of adopting a time-to-expiration approach, as compared to the more common calendar approach, when forecasting feeder cattle, live cattle, and hog basis. Furthermore, the optimal number of past year's basis levels to include in making basis predictions is evaluated in an out-of-sample framework. Absolute basis forecasts errors are generated for all three commodities and evaluated to determine the signifcance of the two issues mentioned above.... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Livestock prices; Basis; Hedging; Basis forecasts; Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18978 |
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| Wang, Dabin; Tomek, William G.. |
| Descriptive statistics and time-series econometric models are used to characterize the behavior of monthly fluid milk prices. Prices in April, May and June appear to be more variable than those in subsequent months, and the spring-time prices are perhaps skewed. Econometric models can capture the historical behavior of spot prices, but forecasts converge to the marginal distribution of the sample prices in about six months. Futures prices for Class III milk have the expected time-to-maturity effect and converge to the respective monthly distributions of the cash prices at contract maturity (as they must, since the contracts are cash settled). Thus, econometric models and futures quotes provide similar information about price behavior at contract... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Hedging; Marketing strategies; Milk futures; Milk prices; Risk management; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19322 |
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| Fortenbery, T. Randall. |
| This paper examines three invited papers focused on commodity prices. Public responses to high nominal commodity prices and perceived increases in price risk have ranged from attempts to assign blame, attempts to change contracting arrangements, and development of public policy that ‘‘protects’’ the market from future occurrences of unacceptable behavior. Interestingly, a result of increased commodity price volatility has suggested that futures markets no longer ‘‘work.’’ This is ironic given that futures markets initially came into existence as tools for managing the negative impacts of commodity price risk. In response to perceptions of market failure some are looking for strategies to regulate the who and how of futures trading. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Futures markets; Hedging; Price risk; Risk management; Speculation; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty; G13; Q11; Q13; Q14. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53084 |
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| McNew, Kevin; Musser, Wesley N.. |
| The current agricultural marketing literature has considerable controversy about the optimal use of hedging for farmers. Much of this literature has very limited data on farmer behavior and an evaluation of the outcome of this behavior. This paper uses data from a hedging game from Maryland marketing clubs for 1994-1998. Hypotheses concerning the consistency of farmer behavior with the research literature on hedging are considered. Results indicate that farmers do not achieve price enhancement from hedging. However, their decisions do not conform to implications of optimal hedging models in a number of dimensions. This analysis provides further information to help bridge the gap between academic research and practical hedging. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Grain Marketing; Hedging; Risk Management; Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28568 |
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| Dahlgran, Roger A.; Ma, Xudong. |
| This study focuses on hedging effectiveness defined as the proportionate price risk reduction created by hedging. By mathematical and simulation analysis we determine the following: (a) the regression R2 in the hedge ratio regression will generally overstate the amount of price risk reduction that can be achieved by hedging, (b) the properly computed hedging effectiveness in the hedge ratio regression will also generally overstate the amount of risk reduction that can be achieved by hedging, (c) the overstatement in (b) declines as the sample size increases, (d) application of estimated hedge ratios to non sample data results in an unbiased estimate of hedging effectiveness, (e) application of hedge ratios computed from small samples presents a significant... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Out of sample; Post sample; Hedging; Effectiveness; Forecasts; Simulation; Agricultural Finance. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37604 |
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| Mahul, Olivier. |
| The demand for hedging against price uncertainty in the presence of crop yield and revenue insurance contracts is examined for two French wheat farms. The rationale for the use of options in addition to futures is first highlighted through the characterization of the first-best hedging strategy in the expected utility framework. It is then illustrated using numerical simulations. The presence of options is shown to allow the insured producer to adopt a more speculative position on the futures market. Futures are shown to be performing, in terms of willingness to receive. Options are weakly performing when futures markets are unbiased, while they are more performing when futures markets are biased. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop insurance; Hedging; Producer welfare; Simulation; Risk and Uncertainty. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24881 |
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| Frechette, Darren L.. |
| The optimal hedging portfolio is shown to include both futures and options under a variety of circumstances when the marginal cost of hedging is non-zero. Futures and options are treated as substitute goods, and properties of the resulting hedging demand system are explained. The overall optimal hedge ratio is shown to increase when the marginal cost of trading options is reduced. The overall optimal hedge ratio is shown to decrease when the marginal cost of trading futures is decreased. The implication is that hedging demand can be stimulated by reducing the perceived cost of trading options, by educating hedgers about options and by initiating programs like the Dairy Options Pilot Program. The demand systems approach is applied to estimate optimal... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Hedging; Options; Futures; Marketing. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18941 |
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| Hanson, Steven D.; Myers, Robert J.; Hilker, James H.. |
| Many agricultural producers face cash price distributions that are effectively truncated at a lower limit through participation in farm programs designed to support farm prices and incomes. For example, the 1996 Federal Agricultural Improvement Act (FAIR) makes many producers eligible to obtain marketing loans which truncate their cash price realization at the loan rate, while allowing market prices to freely equilibrate supply and demand. This paper studies the effects of truncated cash price distributions on the optimal use of futures and options. The results show that truncation in the cash price distribution facing an individual producer provides incentives to trade options as well as futures. We derive optimal futures and options trading rules under... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Farm programs; Futures; Hedging; Options; Truncation; Marketing. |
| Ano: 1999 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15152 |
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| Tonsor, Glynn T.; Dhuyvetter, Kevin C.; Mintert, James R.. |
| Successful risk management strategies for agribusiness firms based on futures and options contracts are contingent on their ability to accurately forecast basis. This research addresses three primary questions as they relate to basis forecasting accuracy: (a) What is the impact of adopting a time-to-expiration approach, as compared to the more common calendar-date approach? (b) What is the optimal number of years to include in calculations when forecasting livestock basis using historical averages? and (c) What is the effect of incorporating current basis information into a historical-average-based forecast? Results indicate that use of the time-to-expiration approach has little impact on forecast accuracy compared to using a simple calendar approach, but... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Basis; Basis forecasts; Cattle prices; Current information; Hedging; Livestock Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31115 |
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| Registros recuperados: 50 | |
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